COVID-19 – Is New York a Prelude to
Florida and Beyond?
Zach Zachariah, Ph. D., M.B. A.
Associate Professor Emeritus, Ohio University
March 30, 2020
Number of Covid-19 cases in the U.
S.: The
United States has now surpassed all other countries in the world including Italy,
Spain and China as the number one country with the total number of confirmed
Covid-19 cases at 144,410. That is close
to 20% of the total reported cases in the World. Approximately 1.8% of those infected (2,600) have
died. In the U.S., New York State leads
with 60,679 cases, which accounts for 42% of the total number. More
than half of the cases (33,500) are in New York City. Close to a thousand persons have died of Covid-19
in the city alone including a renowned surgeon, a nurse and a police detective.
The White House coronavirus coordinator
estimates that this pandemic could kill 100 to 200,000 Americans
.
Over 10 million people have to be infected
for that many people to die. Initially, the vast majority of cases were in
coastal states like Washington, California, New York and New Jersey. More cases
are being reported from Michigan, Florida, Illinois, Louisiana and
Georgia.
Cook County, of which Chicago
is a part, reported 3,445 cases. Detroit (1,542), New Orleans (2,100), and
Miami-Dade County (1472) -
the number of cases are in parenthesis - have
been identified as hotspots where there is a surge in hospitalization resulting
in shortages of supplies, staff, personal protective equipment (PPE),
ventilators and ICU beds. Houston and Dallas are not far behind. This graphics (Click
on graphics to watch the YouTube video) from yesterday’s CNN program
, is a
good illustration of how the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases surged in the
different regions of the country.
New York State and New York City Stats: The first reported case of Covid-19 in New York was on
March 1, 2020. On March 6, the number of
cases doubled to 44 from the previous day.
The next day, the number was 89
and Gov. Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency. On March 14, the first death
was reported and the number of cases reached 524.
On that day, the number of cases in New York
City was a mere 464. In another week, the number of cases in New would reach
15,000 and the city would report 8,115.
By March 29, the number of cases for New York State would be 59,648 (a
300% increase) and New York City would report 32,300 cases (242% increase) and
1,543 deaths.
It took 12 days for the number
to reach 100 and in the next 10 days, that number reached 10,000.
The growth pattern is still exponential.
(See graph on the right). Although the City
is under strict-stay-at-home orders, the peak will not be reached for at least
three weeks.
Mayor de Blasio made a grim
prediction that half of New York City population (4.2 million) would be
infected. New York City is now the epicenter of the Coronavirus crisis, partly
because of its population density.
Millions
of travelers from all over the world came into the three International airports
in the area without being tested or monitored. Many of them would have been asymptomatic
carriers of the virus.
How to flatten the curve? Without any
intervention, the trajectory of the epidemic curve will be exponential with the
apex or the big peak happening at some point in time before coming down. At his point, the hospitals will become
overwhelmed and will be unable to provide care to the critically ill patients.
China, by quarantining the inhabitants of a
whole province was able to flatten the curve and shift the peak to a later
date, which reduced the burden on the hospitals and the healthcare
workers.
The total number of infected
cases under each peak is the same except that the protective measure taken
would flatten the curve to meet the health care system capacity.
Such a drastic step was not adopted in many
other countries.
Instead, countries such
South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Iceland ramped up testing of as
many people as possible to identify those infected and isolated them for 15-21
days.
Another strategy being implemented
by countries like USA and UK is to impose travel restrictions combined with
public health interventions (banning sports events and other mass gatherings,
asking people to stay and work at home) and individual behavioral changes (keeping
safe distance, handwashing) has been found to be effective
.
We
still need data on the number of cases, which in turn requires widespread
testing of the population.
The numbers
reported in the United States do not show the full picture in many parts of the
country, mainly because of the inadequacy of testing.
Watch
the video to understand what it means by “flattening the curve” and
the importance of social distancing.
Have
we flattened the curve? In almost all the states in the United
States, the trajectory of the epidemic curve is exponential. USA Today has an
excellent set of charts that compares the number of Covid-19 cases in each
state to New York. One notable exception is the
state of Washington that reported the first Covid-19 case. The state governor
had implemented strict social gathering rules by closing down restaurants and
bars, restricting large gatherings and issuing stay-at-home orders. Until March
24, the state had the third-highest levels of Covid-19 cases behind New York
and New Jersey. Today it is number seven
in the list of states. In New York, the
number of new cases reported increases only at a slower rate in the last few
days. This trend, if continued in the
coming weeks, will indicate that strict measures taken do help flatten the
curve. Yesterday, the President extended the federal guidelines on social
distancing by a month after suggesting that he will open up the country for
business on Easter Sunday.
What about the parts of the country that have
not implemented the strict guidelines: There is still no countrywide order to
stay-at-home. As of today, citizens of 30
states, 82 counties, 18 cities, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico are
being urged to stay home, which leaves out at least 80 million people that are
not mandated to observe social distancing. Florida
is a case in point. Today, Gov. Ron
DeSantis announced a "Safer At Home" executive order until the middle
of April, which encourages people to stay inside and practice social distancing
to combat the coronavirus pandemic.
However, this order applies only to the four Counties: Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Monroe. While Monroe County only has 24 reported
cases, Tampa area itself has 116 cases and the governor’s order does not apply
there although Hillsborough County has issued a similar order. Unless the other states, many of them in the
South do not institute strict social distancing guidelines, the chances are
that they will begin to see spikes in the number of persons infected.
How
all these matter to us? I
picked several of the places mentioned because majority of Malayalees, many of
them Knananites live and work in these places. Even in places like Ohio, we have a good number of our own healthcare professionals in he forefront of this epidemic trying to save the affected persons. Vast majority of them are nurses, respiratory therapists, nurse practitioners, pharmacists and doctors. Let us take a moment to thank them. We
will soon start hearing reports of our own family and friends being infected and die. I am editing this blog on Sunday, April 5, and yesterday, heard the report of the first death due to Covid-19 of a Knananite in New York City . For
social distancing to work to flatten the curve, each individual should do
his/her part to follow the guidelines. We
can help to minimize the spread of Covid-19 by staying at home and maintaining
safe distance when going to a store. Let
us pray that all of our near and dear healthcare professionals stay safe and
healthy.
