novel-Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Social Distancing 

By Zach Zachariah, Ph.D.

March 24, 2020

What is Coronavirus? Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are known to cause respiratory infections ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The most recently discovered novel coronavirus causes coronavirus disease COVID-19.[1] Common cold, influenza, and the new Coronavirus share similar symptoms with some significant difference.

Spread of the virus: The first confirmed case in the US was in Washington State on January 20, 2020. The patient was a 35-year old man who returned from Wuhan, China. COVID-19 spreads from person to person in close proximity. Droplets of bodily fluids - such as saliva or mucus - from an infected person are dispersed in the air or on surfaces by coughing or sneezing. These droplets can travel several feet and stay suspended in the air. This is the reason why we have been encouraged to practice “social distancing.” On surface of a desk or chair, they can stay for hours. Frequent wiping and disinfecting surfaces will help to remove the virus.

Reported cases of COVD-19 in the United States: As of today (March 24, 2020), the number of

reported cases in the U. S. is 48,963 (5,229 of them new) and 615 deaths (62 of them new). New York State has the worst epidemic (20,875 total and 157 deaths)[2]. In Ohio, as of Monday, March 23, 2020, there are 442 confirmed cases and 6 deaths. Of that total, 149 are in the Cuyahoga County, where Cleveland is.[3]. The latest number of cases is an increase of 33% from yesterday. Things are bleak and the pandemic is spreading. New York is approaching the numbers Italy had a few weeks ago and will surpass Italy’s numbers soon. Italy now has 63,927 cases and 6,077 deaths; the corresponding numbers for New York are 20,875 and 5,085 respectively.

The infection rate in New York doubles every 3 days. By Wednesday, there will be seventeen states including Ohio and several other locations with stay-at-home orders in effect. The first three cases in Ohio were reported on March 9 and in fourteen days; the number has increased to 442. These are what statisticians call “exponential” increase. India only has a total of 519 identified cases and 10 deaths so far. Yet, the Prime Minister just ordered a complete lock-down of the country with 1.4 billion people for twenty-one days. These numbers in India will escalate and the government wants to mitigate the effect. In the U.S, the President wants the “country opened” by Easter, contradicting the views of health experts and scientists.

Who are the carriers of the virus: Some people infected may be asymptomatic and will not be tested to confirm, yet they can spread the virus to the population who are vulnerable. If we assume just 1% of the population has been infected, of the 1.25 million Cuyahoga County residents, 12,500 would be infected and so far, only 442 have been identified. The rest of them may be among us transmitting the disease. We in turn can be infected and then become carriers.

Measures that can we follow now: Practice social distancing and keep a safe distance of at least six feet. If you are unwell, stay home and watch out for common symptoms: fever, cough and difficulty breathing. Call the healthcare provider before calling 911. Following the guidelines will safeguard the health of each one of us, our family and our colleagues, some of whom are vulnerable with underlying health issues. Watch the video[4] to understand what it means by “flattening the curve” and the importance of social distancing

Disclaimer: I have compiled the data from several sources, some of which are cited below. My opinion expressed here is based on facts, science and my own analysis.

References:
 [1] World Health Organization, https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses 
 [2] Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ 
 [3] Ohio Department of Health, https://odh.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/odh/know-our-programs/Novel-Coronavirus 
 [4] What This Chart Actually Means for Covid-19, https://youtu.be/fgBla7RepXU