Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Covid-19 Cases and Forecast - Cuyahoga County and Ohio

Zach Zachariah Ph.D., M.B.A., Associate Professor Emeritus, Ohio University
April 7, 2020

 Reported Coronavirus Cases for Ohio and Cuyahoga County


Comments:
  1. These are actual data from the Ohio Department of Health [1] website and Cleveland.com [2]
  2. The number of cases for Cuyahoga County for April 3 (780) and April 4 (781), and the numbers for Ohio for the same two dates, 3312 and 3379 did not follow the general pattern.
  3. Since then, the daily number of confirmed cases has been increasing exponentially although at a slower rate, indicating a possible flattening..

Forecasts for Cuyahoga County and Ohio


Comments:  
  1. I am not a statistician; but I do understand the math (differential equations) behind mathematical modeling.
  2. These forecast charts were created with the tools available on Excel Spreadsheet.  They appear to match some of the mathematical models seen elsewhere.
  3. The CEO of Cleveland Clinic Dr.Tomislav Mihaljevic was on MSNBC's Morning Joe on April 3, 2020.  Watch the video [3]
  4. The Clinic has been making preparations since early January.  According to Dr. Mihaljevic if we practice Social Distancing, the curve would be flattened with the peak occurring between mid May and mid June for Ohio.
  5. The Director of Ohio Department of Public Health, Dr. Amy Acton has said that she expects Ohio's Coronavirus cases will reach a plateau by the end of May.
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[3].  Cleveland Clinic CEO Interview, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocj9EjI9kgo
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